Ranting Kenya

Is anybody kind of surprised that Apple has beaten Sony and Nintendo to the mobile “xbox live” service? Does this not strike anyone as a complete and utter failure on behalf of Sony and Nintendo. And I suppose also a failure of Microsoft.

I mean let’s review. Basically, the Xbox’s single best unique feature is xbox live. It isn’t new either. It’s been around for like 6 or 7 years now. It’s what pulled a good number of people off the Playstation 2 (the most popular console ever) and onto Microsoft’s new platform, the original xbox. It was and is a pay service. But still, people flock to it.

Now the xbox 360 is a true powerhouse in the console gaming space, and Sony’s playstation network is ok, but not great. It tries to copy the xbox features, but it lacks the community.

Nintendo’s literally pretending that online gaming doesn’t even exist (and what’s the HD everyone is talking about). Now Apple walks in with a phone, a mobile phone, announces their game network, and instantly it makes nearly no sense that Sony and Nintendo have missed this boat.

Nintendo isn’t really surprising because their history suggests that this thing would fly right by. But Sony. The very same strategy that Microsoft used to take a bite out of your console business should’ve been repurposed by you to take a bite out of Nintendo’s mobile gaming dominance.

Apple’s games are for the most part, cheap and of questionable quality. But in their vast library, there are quite a few gems. There are more gems on the iPhone than on the PSP. And there’s millions of iPhones and iPod touches out there. There’s going to be more of them too. It’s the hottest consumer device in years. The games will get better, and Nintendo and Sony will be left wondering out such an obvious enourmous business opportunity/threat looked them right between the eyes, and then moved on.

Microsoft has been touting that Xbox live will go portable (either on their crappy windows mobile 6 phones, or the newly announced Windows mobile 7), but their failure to create any device of note has truly let this opportunity vanish. An “Xboy” would’ve brought the console community over, but they haven’t touched on that either.

So in review, Apple didn’t come up with the idea of an online gaming network, they don’t pay publishers or developers, they have an online software delivery network (iTunes, hello no shipping and shelf space fees), a dedicated and expontentially expanding consumer base, and they’re going to put it all together and completely and utterly dominate the mobile gaming space inside of 3 years (my prediction). Add the quickly improving power of iPhone and iPad-like devices means that mobile games won’t have to be “mobile-like” games for long.

Well, Apple’s WWDC event for 2008 has had it’s keynote now. As expected, the 3G iPhone has been unveiled. I must say, this phone does actually make the previous iPhone look kinda light in the features department. The wireless speed alone is a big difference, the GPS tracking should be awesome (doesn’t cost extra money to have like on my Moto Q). So July 11 should be a big day in Canada and elsewhere.

But aside from a release date from Apple (a search on Rogers’ reveals no matches whatsoever for “iphone”), there is no price information on the Canadian page. Two screenshots below show the differences between the US and Canadian pages.

US Page:

Canadian Page:

Also, there’s no info on data plan rates either. I find this interesting since it was heavily speculated that Canada may have been left out of the last round of iPhones due to Rogers’ data plan greed. But $199 sounds good to me.

At any rate, at least now there’s a date.

So by now, everybody’s heard the news.

Phil made an interesting comment on one of my other posts. He said:

…Chances are a lot of Telus subscribers will ditch their CDMA phones in favour of the trendy iPhone, especially the young and fashionable population…

While I believe this is certainly a possibility, with all the news surrounding the next version of the iPhone (Engadget has a bunch of posts), how many people are really going to go for it? Perhaps many, since not everyone follows this type of thing in the media.

If Rogers negotiated a lucrative exclusivity deal, and their voice/data plan is actually good, then yeah, I think Rogers will be selling them hand over fist. I heard a rumour that a 5GB data plan might be an alternative to unlimited.

However, I believe Rogers will be Rogers and will be greedy. Any really good data plan will undoubtedly be quite expensive. That’s really the deal maker/breaker in the Canadian iPhone story. The monthly charges.

It will of course sell out when launched, it will get all the media attention, and I will see more of them and want one more.

Here’s the price comparison from Daily Tech:

The numbers look too good to be true… A 2.2 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, 2 GB of DDR2 667 memory, a 250 GB hard drive, DVD, and Integrated Intel GMA 950 Graphics, all for a lowly $399. To put this in perspective a Mac Mini with a 2.0 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, equivalent memory, a 160 GB hard drive, DVD, and the same graphics processor, will cost you a hefty $949. Of course the $399 Mac came in a full-size case, and the Mac Mini came in a shrunken footprint, but obviously for some Mac users, the decreased size wasn’t worth $550.

So what does this tell us about Apple, Macs, and the industry? Well for one, there’s interest in an actual low-cost alternative to the Mac. The Mac Mini gets a lot of attention due to it’s form factor, but it was billed by Apple as the cheap alternative. The computer that was for people who wanted a Mac experience, without spending thousands of dollars.

Some would argue that these computers are a good thing, that they will increase the Mac platform’s spread in the computer world. And they probably would. I would even bet that it wouldn’t cut into Mac sales much, if at all. The people who buy Macs still want “a Mac”. This however would bring more people in, and probably convert them to full-blown Mac users eventually.

Apple however, I’d bet, isn’t interested in this scenario. I forget where this comes from, but someone speculated that Apple isn’t all that interested in increasing their marketshare in the PC/Windows dominated world. They have their little corner of the market, and they’re happy with it. Why not sell a “premium” product at a premium price? They even get to play by a lot of their own rules as a result. They are in essence a monopoly of sorts. Sure they compete against PCs, but not really.

Hopefully this product doesn’t die. I’ve been thinking hard recently of hacking a PC to run OS X. It’s a cheaper alternative to buying a Mac and running Windows on it via Bootcamp. My PC has far more power than any iMac, and probably competes with the Mac Pros on some benchmarks, and is half the price. Which is really why Apple doesn’t like this Open Computer. They don’t want to compete on price (they’d lose), and they don’t want more of the market. Simple as that.

Update

One problem with Apple’s dislike of this company… it doesn’t exists really… Oh well.

Update 2

I guess they do exists. Who can keep up with this? Oh right, Engadget

Now that the music industry is allowing it’s content go out DRM-free, the music battle is more or less over. I believe that soon, music will be avaiable from all the major labels on all the major services. Apple pioneered the industry, Amazon was the first to fully nail it (in my opinion), and now there’s a baseline from which to judge the rest.

But what about video?

Well, the newest player out there (as of yesteday) is Apple. They started the music revolution (or was that Napster?), and now they look to duplicate that success for movies.

There’s another gorilla out there too, Microsoft (have you heard of them). They’ve been doing this for a while now on Xbox.

Amazon has their unbox service, which has already gone through some major revisions.

Aren’t we on the tail end of a format war right now?

So what’s the deal with all these services? From what I can tell, here is the list of similarities between them:

• They all use some form of DRM.
• They all work on different devices.
• They’re all rental services.
• They’re all unique, just like all the others.

So here are my quick thoughts on each service:

Apple

Pros

• Apple’s biggest advantage is that it’s Apple. Their computers continue to sell, iPods are huge, iPhones are even bigger. They have a highly desirable brand in the public consciousness.
• In a close second place, it’s next biggest advantage is that they have all major movie studios onboard. That’s better than the iTunes music store, and a great place to start.
• The quality of the HD video that Steve Jobs outlined sounded excellent. Finally the Apple TV will have some HD content, and also 5.1 digital audio.
• You can rent your movies through the simplicity of iTunes, or another excellent Apple interface via the Apple TV that you access from your couch.

Cons

• However, unlike the iTunes music store, Apple will have a much harder time since other companies are working on the digital delivery model too. iTunes was revolutionary, but others have seen the virtues of Apple’s product and business models.
• Media companies are getting more savvy, and more wary of Steve Jobs. Many feel that he unfairly compensated the recording industry with his low prices. He has been hailed for negotiating some of the most lucrative business deal for his own company (hello AT&T and the iPhone).
• Another problem, you have to purchase an Apple TV to enjoy these videos from your couch. Another couple hundred dollar investment.
• Figuring out what you can do with these videos is also a problem (but not unique to Apple). Here’s an example from Engadget.

Microsoft – Xbox Live

Pros

• Microsoft’s biggest advantage is probably that there is already 10 million Xbox 360 consoles in the wild. As far as getting content from the net to the TV with some propietary box, Xbox 360 is way out front.
• Similarily, they’ve already been selling videos (both HD and SD) on their service for well over a year now. In the Xbox 360 vs PS3 battle, a headstart is clearly a big advatage to have.
• An Xbox 360 console does far more than an Apple TV. It’s not a dedicated media extender/set-top box/service. It plays games, plays HD-DVD (with appropriate attachment), plays DVDs, and a whole lot of other stuff.
• As much as it doesn’t hurt to be Apple, it doesn’t hurt to be Microsoft. They’re huge, they got fingers everywhere, they have excellent technology, huge amounts of cash, and they’ll be in the for the long haul no matter what.
• Xbox 360s, when connected correctly, can upconvert it’s output to 1080p. This is a minor destinction to most, but not all.

Cons

• However, Microsoft lacks full studio support. Content is clearly king.
• You need to have an Xbox 360 console, and it’s more money than an Apple TV.
• You have to use these “Xbox points“. And it’s not a 1:1 ratio with real money. And you have to buy them in bulk. They’re annoying.

Amazon

Pros

• TiVo integration. What could be better than having your videos already waiting for you on your TiVo?
• Amazon got music right. Low prices, DRM-free, huge collection.
• They also have a working video service right now. As far as I know it’s PC only, but they’re in the game.
• I also think that Amazon has some unique possibilities regarding sales. They could sell you the DVD copy, while allowing you to rent or buy a digital copy that you can watch before the DVD arrives in the mail. This also eliminates that whole rental/purchase issue.

Cons

• How do you get it to the TV?
• Doesn’t have the brand recognition in this space of a Microsoft or Apple.
• There is no HD as far as I’m aware.

Final Thoughts

All in all, now that HD-DVD seems to be on its deathbed (at the hands of Blu-Ray), we’re really on the beginning of another “format war” of sorts. How are you supposed to pick between services? Some work with some ipods, some only with specific hardware, all have strict DRM schemes, none of them have anything to do with purchasing content, none inter-operate either.

However, I believe that this is a battle that we can’t afford to sit out. I’m sure if the movie studios see no sales in this digital space, it will delay the roll out of truly good download services by years. Money really is the only motivation that us as consumers can provide for large companies to develop technology and delivery methods that work for us.

This is also essentially the problem the music industry just went through. How do we trust our customers and allow them to enjoy the content they purchase the way they want?

*laughs* Actually, wouldn’t cable card solve a lot of these issues?

Jack Kapica wrote in the Globe and Mail an article concerning data rates in Canada and the iPhone.

Here’s my comments on the article and the situation.

Rogers, this is directed at you, and I’m not one of your customers. Cut your data rates. Get the iPhone ASAP. Apple is making a 3G iPhone right now, if it’s not done already. They’re not stupid. They won’t let their new baby, their new industry changing device languish on your GSM network. Get it now while you still can. Nobody is going to be interested in a GSM iPhone if another version is available.

Also, consider that this is the first revision of the iPhone. Your customers of your data plans are largely business clients. Do you really think Apple isn’t going to improve the business functionality of this device? It already has Microsoft Exchange Server compatibility, which if you remember, competes with Blackberry’s push email service.

When the 3G iPhone comes, and remember that it will, do you really think that both Bell and Telus are going to pass on this device? They’re going to see your weakness, your high data rates, and they’re going to cut theirs and leave you high and dry. I’m not in marketing, but I can already see the promotion: New iPhone with new low data rate, and a first in Canada. Compare that to your counter-campaign: Same Blackberry, and we’ll lower our rates too because we don’t care about you, but Bell and Telus are forcing our hand. Seriously, your rates are anti-consumer, and because of that Telus and Bell have made a killing too. Up until now, there’s been no real reason to change the rates since you’re all sleeping on hundred dollar bills, but the iPhone is the reason. It is the change that the entire Canadian wireless industry needs, and it will come to pass, with or without you. Most people aren’t willing to unlock and have firmware updates mess things up. They need a real solution, the one only you can give.

Seriously, Apple has given you the greatest gift you could ever ask for. The un-disputed hottest electronic device in years, hotter than the iPod, and you are the only one who can really bring it to Canada (for now).

Only, you’re saying, “No thanks.”